Development and validation of a prediction model for severe respiratory failure in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a multicentre cohort study (PREDI-CO study).

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to predict severe respiratory failure (SRF) among patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We performed a multicentre cohort study among hospitalized (>24 hours) patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from 22 February to 3 April 2020, at 11 Italian hospitals. Patients were divided into derivation and validation cohorts according to random sorting of hospitals. SRF was assessed from admission to hospital discharge and was defined as: Spo2 <93% with 100% Fio2, respiratory rate >30 breaths/min or respiratory distress. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify predictors of SRF, ß-coefficients were used to develop a risk score. Trial Registration NCT04316949. RESULTS: We analysed 1113 patients (644 derivation, 469 validation cohort). Mean (±SD) age was 65.7 (±15) years, 704 (63.3%) were male. SRF occurred in 189/644 (29%) and 187/469 (40%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. At multivariate analysis, risk factors for SRF in the derivation cohort assessed at hospitalization were age ≥70 years (OR 2.74; 95% CI 1.66-4.50), obesity (OR 4.62; 95% CI 2.78-7.70), body temperature ≥38°C (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.30-2.29), respiratory rate ≥22 breaths/min (OR 3.75; 95% CI 2.01-7.01), lymphocytes ≤900 cells/mm3 (OR 2.69; 95% CI 1.60-4.51), creatinine ≥1 mg/dL (OR 2.38; 95% CI 1.59-3.56), C-reactive protein ≥10 mg/dL (OR 5.91; 95% CI 4.88-7.17) and lactate dehydrogenase ≥350 IU/L (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.11-5.11). Assigning points to each variable, an individual risk score (PREDI-CO score) was obtained. Area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.89 (0.86-0.92). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 71.6% (65%-79%), 89.1% (86%-92%), 74% (67%-80%) and 89% (85%-91%), respectively. PREDI-CO score showed similar prognostic ability in the validation cohort: area under the receiver-operator curve 0.85 (0.81-0.88). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 80% (73%-85%), 76% (70%-81%), 69% (60%-74%) and 85% (80%-89%), respectively. CONCLUSION: PREDI-CO score can be useful to allocate resources and prioritize treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Electronic remote blood issue combined with a computer-controlled, automated refrigerator for major surgery in operating theatres at a distance from the transfusion service.

BACKGROUND: The difficulty of supplying red blood cells within an adequate time to patients undergoing surgery is a known problem for transfusion services, particularly if the operating theater is located at some distance from the blood bank. The consequences frequently are that more blood is ordered than required; several units are allocated and issued; and unused units must be returned to the blood bank. Some sparse reports have demonstrated that remote blood issue systems can improve the efficiency of issuing blood. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This study describes a computer-controlled, self-service, remote blood-release system, combined with an automated refrigerator, installed in a hospital at which major surgery was performed, located 5 kilometers away from the transfusion service. With this system, red blood cell units were electronically allocated to patients immediately before release, when the units actually were needed. Two 2-year periods, before and after implementation of the system, were compared. RESULTS: After implementation of the system, the ratio of red blood cell units returned to the transfusion service was reduced from 48.9% to 1.6% of the issued units (8852 of 18,090 vs. 182 of 11,152 units; p < 0.0001), and the issue-to-transfusion ratio was reduced from 1.96 to 1.02. An increase in the number of transfused red blood cell units was observed, probably mainly due to changes in the number and complexity of surgical procedures. No transfusion errors occurred in the two periods. CONCLUSION: The current results demonstrate that the remote blood-release system is safe and useful for improving the efficiency of blood issue for patients in remote operating theatres.